(2006). This second approach removes assumptions in the model concerning the dependency of fish on coral. In the BAU future, 2050 will see tropical

SSTs 1.5 °C warmer (Rogelj et al., 2012), sea level 40 cm higher (Jevrejeva et al., 2012), and rainfall patterns that make currently wet regions wetter and dry regions more arid (Lough et al., 2011). Precipitation is likely to arrive in fewer, more intense storms. Higher SSTs will increase the risk of local thermal anomalies exceeding long-term summer maxima. Currently, thermal anomalies ⩾1 °C above long-term summer maxima (climatology from 1985 to 1995), and lasting four weeks or more result in mass coral bleaching, and coral mortality increases if anomalies are greater or last longer (Eakin et al., 2010). Acidification will exacerbate effects of temperature on corals by slowing recovery from bleaching, and generally http://www.selleckchem.com/products/abt-199.html curtail reef accretion. Coral reefs will be substantially degraded or lost by 2050 in the BAU future (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007). By 2050 in the MODERATE www.selleckchem.com/products/EX-527.html future the extent of

each of these changes will be only somewhat less. (The real difference between these scenarios will appear later in the century.) In our most benign STRONG projection, these impacts will also occur although to reduced extents. The sensitivity of corals to heat stress is such that the predicted +0.6 °C increase in SST will likely increase frequency and severity of mass bleaching events. However, stabilization of GHG concentrations during this century should allow time for adaptation and some

continued reef accretion (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007). Under all three scenarios, it is clear that climate change stresses on tropical coastal ecosystems, and particularly coral reefs, are going to increase by 2050. As well as effects of climate change, coral reefs along with other habitats will experience growing impacts due to local stressors (all growing with growth in coastal populations). The growing impacts will reduce coral reef complexity, in addition to causing degradation of other linked habitats such as seagrass meadows, mangroves, and algal flats (Waycott et al., 2011). In turn, loss of coral cover and 3-dimensional reef structure will reduce the diversity and abundance of small reef fishes (Jones et al., Selleckchem Baf-A1 2004 and Wilson et al., 2006), important prey of reef fishery species (Pratchett et al., 2011). These changes are expected to have secondary effects on coastal fisheries production in all tropical seas (see Box 1). Human populations in tropical coastal areas benefit substantially from goods and services provided by their bordering seas. They also stress and degrade these systems (Lotze et al., 2006). Urban residents, although depending less on food from immediate waters, cause significant pollution, eutrophication and low oxygen ‘dead’ zones (Doney, 2010 and von Glasow et al., 2013) while adding to pressures on fisheries.